A black swan event is a consequential occurrence that is almost impossible to predict, yet after the fact seems to have been inevitable. Such events can prove highly disruptive to the stock market, where investors spend millions trying to predict unpredictable events....
A grey swan is an event that is possible and known, potentially extremely significant but considered not very likely to happen. The term grey swan is a play on Taleb's concept of an unpredictable black swan event, but is fundamentally different in that it is predictable. Grey swans can be ...
Yarovaya, Brzeszczyński, Goodell, Lucey, and Lau (2022) suggest that the COVID-19 crisis can be considered a “black swan” event: a situation that has never previously occurred and which caused existing risk management models to fail to adequately evaluate the risk (Yarovaya, Matkovskyy, ...
representing the potential cost to an organization if that event occurs, as well as the likelihood that the event will occur in a given year. In other words, if the anticipated cost of a significantcyber attackis $10 million and the likelihood...
Market sentiment cannot predict a black swan event, such as a pandemic or terror attack or other macro-economic events that can move the markets. The only defense against such market-moving events is a properly diversified investment strategy. ...
When only one-third of the time-buffer or less is left until the delivery date, or the on-hand stock is only one-third or less of the stock buffer, the buffer status of that order is considered RED, meaning it has top priority. Once that red order gets the top priority the wait ...
In the debate regarding climate the second law of thermodynamics is often quoted but rarely explained. For a starter lesson watch Flanders and Swan sing the basics. But these are rules. Not the understanding of them. The problem is understanding the nature of energy which is in reality a flux...
However, there’s one marker of the night sky that may appear to be season but is anything but. Look south after sunset; you’ll see a 34%-illuminated crescent moon shining brightly. Venus will be between it and the southwestern horizon, shining at magnitude -4.8. It’s been this way ...
An economic collapse is an extraordinary event that is not necessarily a part of the standard economic cycle. It can occur at any point in the cycle, leading to contraction and recessionary phases. Economic theory outlines several phases that an economy can go through. A full economic cycle inc...
Rwanda, in central Africa, was one of the most aggressive. On January 31, it cancelled flights from China. A week after the first case slipped through the net in March, it suspended international flights altogether, closed its borders and told people to stay indoors. “This is what any cou...