Measures of economic activity have historically risen and fallen in a pattern known as the business cycle. The business cycle contains 4 distinct phases: early, mid, late, and recession. History offers guidance as to how various types of investments might perform during each phase. ...
" Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle ," Economic Review , Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-21.Cogley, T. (1996). "Evaluating Non-Structural Measures of ...
Taxes, like all economic measures, follow the business cycle. So much so that it’s interesting to understand past business cycles—and perhaps the current bust—in terms of taxes. Here we examine the yin-yang of corporate and employment taxes by plotting the country's total employment taxes ...
Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected manufacturing output series in six European Economies over the period 1968-1998.No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in the derived expectations series ...
The newera of economic policy has its roots in the financial crisis of 2007-09.Central banks enacted temporary and extraordinary measures such as qe to avoid a depression. But it has since become clear that deep forces are at work. Inflation no longer rises reliably when unemployment is low,...
This paper investigates the differences in the cyclical dynamics in employment on non-agricultural payroll (ENAP) and total civilian employment (TCE), and the implications for monitoring US business cycles in real time. We find that employment measures have diverged considerably around the last three...
Uncertainty, Risk-taking, and the Business Cycle in Germany This article investigates the business cycle behaviour of measures of perceived uncertainty and financial risk premia in Germany over the past two decades... A Popescu - 《Cesifo Economic Studies》 被引量: 103发表: 2010年 Expectation Err...
reach 184 million, with a year-on-year increase of 0.69% in enterprise activity and an average extension of 0.64 years in the lifespan of exiting enterprises. The increasing trend of business entities cannot be separated from the support of policies. In recent years, a series of measures have...
Keymetricsdetermine where the economy is and where it's headed. TheNational Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)is the definitive source for marking the official dates for U.S. economic cycles. Relying primarily on changes in GDP, NBER measures the length of economic cycles from trough to trough...
Specifically, this business cycle measure suggests that recessions are periods of relatively large and negative transitory fluctuations in output. However, several close competitors to the nonlinear model produce business cycle measures of widely differing shapes and magnitudes. Given this model-based ...