Recent work has shown that the words used in the Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook are not easily understood by members of the public. Furthermore, Spanish translations of the outlook information have also been shown to have interpretation challenges. This study uses ...
8B.6 A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF SPC “HIGH RISK ” OUTLOOKS, 2003-2009"High Risk " (HR) convective outlooks issued by the NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are reserved for events that only occur a few days per year when all the ingredients for a high impact severeJason M. Davis...
The purpose of this study is to interpret the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks for potential impacts. Radar data was used to provide the link between what has been forecast by SPC outlooks to what actually occurred. Several metrics, such as total area (km^2) of SPC ...
This study provides an objective evaluation of severe convection predictability using Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks as well as a method to identify severe weather events with low-predictive skill. Initial case studies of select events, such as the 4 May 2010 and 18 January ...
The convective outlook is the primary forecast used by a wide variety of users such as National Weather Service (NWS) offices, emergency managers, and other organizations as the initial step in the severe storms forecast and warning process.Verification of probabilistic severe storm forecasts at the...
Introduction Recent research has focused on the evaluation of the accuracy and skill of the Storm Prediction Center's categorical convective outlook products [1][2][3], but this approach cannot be directly applied to probabilistic outlooks. As a result, a verification measure developed for rare-...
Verification of Convective Environment Forecasts from the NAM Parent and CONUS Nest within SPC Outlook AreasHepper, Robert MHepper, Robert M
Based on this analysis, it was determined that the most significant predictors of fatalities based on convective outlooks are the total area of the outlook (risk area) and the area with greater than or equal to 50 people per square kilometer. The most significant predictor of fatalities based ...
As an extension to the Storm Prediction Centers 2001 Spring Experiment, a cloud model ensemble is used to determine its utility as a forecasting tool. Based on the Day 2 outlook, soundings are extracted from three mesoscale models over a 160 x 160 km area. These soundings serve as initial ...