The purpose of this study is to interpret the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks for potential impacts. Radar data was used to provide the link between what has been forecast by SPC outlooks to what actually occurred. Several metrics, such as total area (km^2) of SPC ...
The convective outlook is the primary forecast used by a wide variety of users such as National Weather Service (NWS) offices, emergency managers, and other organizations as the initial step in the severe storms forecast and warning process.Verification of probabilistic severe storm forecasts at the...
Based on this analysis, it was determined that the most significant predictors of fatalities based on convective outlooks are the total area of the outlook (risk area) and the area with greater than or equal to 50 people per square kilometer. The most significant predictor of fatalities based ...
Verification of Convective Environment Forecasts from the NAM Parent and CONUS Nest within SPC Outlook AreasHepper, Robert MHepper, Robert M
This study provides an objective evaluation of severe convection predictability using Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks as well as a method to identify severe weather events with low-predictive skill. Initial case studies of select events, such as the 4 May 2010 and 18 January ...