In this close election, candidate prospects are a true toss-up. My team’s October 15, 2024, analysis found conflicting economic and market indicators, further clouding the reading of potential outcomes. While not the only determinant, voter sentiment on the economy is correlated with presidential...
global financial marketprediction markettime‐series analysisToda–Yamamoto causality testU.S. presidential electionPrediction markets trade securities with final prices contingent on the outcome of future events, for example, who will win the next political election. We show how the outcome of a ...
Get the latest updates on the 2024 US elections. Find comprehensive information on the presidential candidates, key election news, and what the 2024 US presidential election means for the future.
Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections. Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also... Snowberg,Erik,Wolfers,... - Working Papers (Faculty)...
Trump’s latest pro-crypto statements reverse his earlier anti-crypto position. In 2019, Trump said he was “not a fan of Bitcoin” and other cryptocurrencies and called the assets' value “highly volatile and based on thin air.” Meanwhile, Biden's re-election campaign appears to be moving...
Recently there has been much interest in prediction markets. The idea is that if people bet real money on an outcome (such as the presidential race), they may have more honest and more considered opinions than typical poll results. There are at least 5 markets covering the election; here ar...
” The words had reverberated in many ears with a sense of freshness, from when they were first uttered, as if seeking to disabuse television audiences of the image that had haunted the nation from before the 2000 election, but which had stuck uncomfortably in the background of the nation...
While the outcome in the 2024 election is not yet known, the S&P 500 rose 3.3% during that three-month span this year. "You can say there is sort of an overlap — the market usually goes up on an annual basis and voters tend to give the incumbent the benefit of the doubt, so it...
Online prediction market PredictIt's 2024 presidential general election market showed Harris' odds at improving to 56% from 52% immediately before the debate, while Trump's odds slipped to 48% from 51%. Stock futures eased during the debate and after it concluded, with the ...
Analysts were mixed about the impact Biden’s decision would have on both the election and the market. “The prediction market-implied odds of Democrats winning the White House rose a few points but remains slightly less than 40%,” wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in a note Monday. The odds of...