In this chapter, we investigate the correlations between poll results and prediction markets results throughout the election campaign in Israel prior to the April 2019 elections and compare their accuracy. We show that although correlated and influenced by the polls, prediction markets have some ...
Across the country, Democrats are winning special elections and overperforming in elections they have predictably lost. And it's fueling optimism among Democrats looking at a challenging election year for both the White House and Congress. "Polls don't vote. People vote. And that's what's been...
This study tests for direct causality between RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling averages and InTrade (IT) share-prices by performing Granger causality tests. These tests are applied to the 2012 U.S. presidential election campaign between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Three time series are considered ...
In this election, the incentives are doubly bad, because the polling averages in the swing states are close to zero — so a pollster can both herd toward the consensusandavoid taking a stand that there’s a ~50/50 chance they’ll later be criticized for by publishing a steady stream of...
The polls indicate the race between Trump and Harris is a toss-up. Carville, back in late September, shared that he had a “feeling” that Harris wouldultimately prevailin the race, but declined to make an official prediction at the time. ...
Polls that Mattered: Effects of Media Polls on Voters' Coalition Expectations and Party Preferences in the 2005 German Parliamentary Election While much speculated on, the effects of media polls on citizens' political perceptions and preferences have remained notoriously elusive in empirical rese......
If the media coverage is anything to go by, people are desperate to know who will win the US election on November 8. Polls give us some indication of what's likely to happen, but any single poll isn't a great guide (despite the hype that accompanies some
In a stunning turn of events, President Joe Biden officially bowed out of the race for the White House. For months, Biden’s age has been an election issue. But until debate night nearly four weeks ago, few pundits dared to suggest he would leave ...
Though election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date nearly all of the evidence on efficiency compares election eve forecasts with final pre-election polls and actual outcomes. Here, we present evidence that prediction markets outperform polls for longer ...
The public opinion polls said Tuesday’s presidential election would be a nailbiter. But it looked a lot different at online prediction markets where people bet real money on the outcome. Markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket showed a consistent lead for Donald Trump. And they were rig...