In this chapter, we investigate the correlations between poll results and prediction markets results throughout the election campaign in Israel prior to the April 2019 elections and compare their accuracy. We show that although correlated and influenced by the polls, prediction markets have some ...
Carville, the architect of former PresidentClinton’ssuccessful 1992 campaign, also criticized Trump for his rhetoric on the campaign trail andargued that the Constitutionis on the ballot. The polls indicate the race between Trump and Harris is a toss-up. Carville, back in late September, shared...
Across the country, Democrats are winning special elections and overperforming in elections they have predictably lost. And it's fueling optimism among Democrats looking at a challenging election year for both the White House and Congress. "Polls don't vote. People vote. And that's what's been...
In this election, the incentives are doubly bad, because the polling averages in the swing states are close to zero — so a pollster can both herd toward the consensusandavoid taking a stand that there’s a ~50/50 chance they’ll later be criticized for by publishing a steady stream of...
Though election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date nearly all of the evidence on efficiency compares election eve forecasts with final pre-election polls and actual outcomes. Here, we present evidence that prediction markets outperform polls for longer ...
The public opinion polls said Tuesday’s presidential election would be a nailbiter. But it looked a lot different at online prediction markets where people bet real money on the outcome. Markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket showed a consistent lead for Donald Trump. And they were rig...
For months, Biden’s age has been an election issue. But until debate night nearly four weeks ago, few pundits dared to suggest he would leave the race, with most viewing it as a near impossibility. However, the odds on well-known internet predicti...
The polls are strong for Biden, stronger than they were for Clinton, and more stable across vital districts and states. None of the shit they’ve tried to stick to Biden has stuck, and Trump appears, from my window at least, to be flailing — and I don’t say that as ...
Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls. I would expect these odds to match, pretty closely, but they don’t. Liquidity? Polymarket way off (segmented from US participants?). RealClearPolitics average doesn’t include PredictIt (nor Kalshi...
President-elect Donald Trump wasn't the only one declaring victory on Wednesday. So were the online betting markets that forecasthis election victory. As polls began closing on Tuesday evening, Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, put the odds of a Trump victory at about ...