结果表明,NCEP-CFSv2模式仅对11月西伯利亚高压强度的预测效能较好,研究其成因发现11月西伯利亚高压强度主要受该地区热力、动力过程以及西伯利亚地区积雪状况的影响。在热力过程方面,NCEP-CFSv2模式可以较好地再现11月西伯利亚高压强度及其相联的该地区表层土壤温度、对外长波辐射等热力因素;在动力过程方面,模式能较好地再现11...
利用NCEP的第二代气候预测系统(CFSv2)提供的2000-2009年降水场历史回报试验资料以及川渝182个测站的降水实况资料.采用时间相关系数,均方根误差,距平相关系数,距平符号一致率以及PS评分等方法,对模式在川渝地区夏季降水以及夏季降水异常的次季节尺度预测技巧进行检验,并进一步分析了模式在概率密度和降水频次方面的预报偏差特...
NCEP-CFSv2模式预测效能可预测来源作为东亚冬季风的关键系统,西伯利亚高压的变化对欧亚大陆冬季天气及气候异常产生重要影响.本文系统地评估了美国国家环境预测中心第二代气候预测系统(NCEP-CFSv2,National Center for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System,version 2)对冬半年(11～2月)及逐月西伯利亚高压强... ...
摘要:春季欧亚大陆积雪与中国夏季降水有显著的相关关系,但由于缺乏在气候预报模式中春季欧亚大陆积雪与中国夏季降水关系的研究,使得在我国夏季降水的气候预测中很少关注欧亚大陆春季积雪异常这个信号,从而影响了我国汛期降水业务预测成功率。鉴于此,本项目利用美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)最新的气候预报系统(CFSv2)的后报资料...
本文利用NCEP气候预报系统第二版(Climate Forecast System version 2,CFSv2)逐月积雪覆盖率和雪水当量后报资料,分析了该模式对于欧亚大陆积雪的预测能力和可预测性。主要结论如下:CFSv2能够基本再现观测到的欧亚大陆积雪的季节循环。整体来看,模式对于积雪覆盖率的模拟能力好于雪水当量。由于积雪累积期与消融期积雪覆盖率...
(CFSv2) http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov SuranjanaSaha 1 ,ShrinivasMoorthi 1 ,XingrenWu 2 ,JiandeWang 2 ,Sudhir Nadiga 2 ,PatrickTripp 2 ,DavidBehringer 1 ,Yu-TaiHou 1 ,Hui-yaChuang 1 , MarkIredell 1 ,MichaelEk 1 ,JesseMeng 2 ,RongqianYang 2 , HuugvandenDool 3 ,QinZhang 4 ,WanqiuWang...
CFSv2A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and ...
The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2009) from the ECMWF System 4 (SYS4) and NCEP CFS version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal prediction systems. In both SYS4 and CFSv2, a cold bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) is found over...
The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2009) from the ECMWF System 4 (SYS4) and NCEP CFS version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal prediction systems. In both SYS4 and CFSv2, a cold bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) is found over...
In this paper the hindcast precipitation fields of the NCEP's second-generation climate prediction system (CFSv2) and the observed precipitation data of 182 meteorological stations in Sichuan and Chongqing from 2000 to 2009 were utilized. Sub-seasonal forecastin...