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Pokhrel S, Saha SK, Dhakate A, Rahman H, Chaudhari HS, Salunke K, Hazra A, Sujith K, Sikka DR. 2016. Seasonal pre- diction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error. ClimDyn 46: 2305. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2703-1....
稳定误差 诊断 低频振荡 摘要: 利用NCEP的气候预报系统(C1imate Forecast System,CFS)所提供的1981-2004年历史回报试验结果,检验和评估了该系统对夏季东亚地区大气环流的预报技巧和系统误差;在此基础卜通过提取模式预报和观测的10～20 d及30～60 d低频振荡分量,重点对我国南方3次典型持续性暴雨过程的预报技巧进行.....
利用NCEP的气候预报系统(Climate Forecast System, CFS)所提供的1981-2004年历史回报试验结果,检验了该系统对夏季东亚地区大气环流的预报技巧和系统误差;在此基础上通过提取模式预报和观测的10-20天和30-60天低频振荡(Low-frequency Oscillations, LFO)分量,重点对我国南方三次典型持续性暴雨过程的预报技巧进行检验和诊...
摘要:春季欧亚大陆积雪与中国夏季降水有显著的相关关系,但由于缺乏在气候预报模式中春季欧亚大陆积雪与中国夏季降水关系的研究,使得在我国夏季降水的气候预测中很少关注欧亚大陆春季积雪异常这个信号,从而影响了我国汛期降水业务预测成功率。鉴于此,本项目利用美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)最新的气候预报系统(CFSv2)的后报资料...
EMC/NCEP has completed a set of more than 4000 retrospective integrations of the new Climate Forecast System (CFS), which became operational in August 2004. The CFS is a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-land modeling system. The ocean model is the GFDL MOM3, with 1/3rd degree resolution near...
本文利用NCEP气候预报系统第二版(Climate Forecast System version 2,CFSv2)逐月积雪覆盖率和雪水当量后报资料,分析了该模式对于欧亚大陆积雪的预测能力和可预测性。主要结论如下:CFSv2能够基本再现观测到的欧亚大陆积雪的季节循环。整体来看,模式对于积雪覆盖率的模拟能力好于雪水当量。由于积雪累积期与消融期积雪覆盖率...
P. Stratospheric assessments of the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS) ( isammiddle)
A big achievement of NCEP in 2004 is the implementation of a new climate forecast system (CFS) for seasonal and inter-annual climate forecast. The CFS is a fully coupled global ocean, land and atmosphere model. Its modest climate drift makes "1-tiered" climate prediction practical. A set of...
CFSv2The climatological Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is decomposed into the slow and fast annual cycles (SAC and FAC). The FAC represents the abrupt onset and breaks phase-locked to the ASM seasonal progression. This study evaluates how well the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) ...