A monthly forecasting system has been set up at ECMWF. Probabilistic scores indicate some potentially useful skill for the periods days 12 to 18 and 19 to 32. A case study of the 2003 heat wave over Europe suggests that the model successfully predicted a risk of heat wave higher than in ...
Since August 1993, when a new surface model was introduced (Viterbo and Bel- jaars, 1995), the spurious oscillation is no longer presen in the ECMWF data. The data examined in B94 consists of initial condi- tions (so-called analyses) for the model surface temper- ature, used in the ...
To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed Bernoulli-Gamma-Gaussian model, numerical experiments are devised to calibrate S2S precipitation forecasts generated by the ECMWF (Vitart et al., 2017) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Show abstract Statistical Bias Correction of Precipitation Forecasts...
forecasting; SVR; SVM; rainfall; anomalies; large-scale climate indices; Andean river basin1. Introduction Rain is a phenomenon that significantly conditions human activity. Knowing its dynamics and forecasting its behavior is essential to optimize water use, for example, in human consumption, ...
4. Risk Forecasting 4.1. Integration over the Seasonal Ensemble Forecasts of the ECMWF From the 51 members of the ECMWF seasonal forecasts ensemble we retrieve the 𝑍500Z500 over the large domain (Figure 2a). An ensemble is a set of several deterministic forecasts—the members—which differ fr...
there was a rising trend for TS of severe convective weather forecasting.For the 6-24 h forecasts,the TS of thunder-storm was 0.22-0.34,the TS of the short-time heavy rain was 0.18-0.24,the TS of thunderstorm gale and hailstone was 0.01-0.07;for the 48-72 h forecasts,the TS of ...
Such tools are designed to identify at-risk districts so that preventative measures can be taken before outbreaks begin [18]. Many techniques use present or projected climatic conditions to forecast the risk of malaria in the upcoming weeks and months [16]. Due to the complexity of forecasting ...
最高温度<1℃的准确率较ECMWF分别提高22.8%和11.9%,<2℃的准确率则分别提高29.7%和17.4%.最低(高)温度绝对误差平均减小0.99℃(0.69℃),平均误差(ME)下降到0.7℃(-0.9℃)以内.(4)通过一元线性回归,得到98个县级站的温度预报,返回差值场来订正格点场,也能较好地订正ECMWF的系统性误差.对比两种方法,SCMOC差值...
Hersbach,Hans - 《Weather & Forecasting》 被引量: 854发表: 2000年 A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems The present paper summarizes the methodologies used at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Meteorological Service of Canada...
ERA5-Land data is available from 1981 to three months from real-time. More information can be found at the Copernicus Climate Data Store. ERA5-Land是一个再分析数据集,与ERA5相比,它以更高的分辨率提供了数十年来土地变量演变的一致观点。ERA5-Land是通过重放ECMWF ERA5气候再分析的...