The forecasting system is based on GLOBO, an atmospheric general circulation model developed at the same institute. The model is presently run on a monthly basis to produce an ensemble of 32 forecasts initialized with GFS-NCEP perturbed analyses. Reforecasts, initialized with ECMWF ERA-Interim ...
To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed Bernoulli-Gamma-Gaussian model, numerical experiments are devised to calibrate S2S precipitation forecasts generated by the ECMWF (Vitart et al., 2017) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Show abstract Statistical Bias Correction of Precipitation Forecasts...
Such tools are designed to identify at-risk districts so that preventative measures can be taken before outbreaks begin [18]. Many techniques use present or projected climatic conditions to forecast the risk of malaria in the upcoming weeks and months [16]. Due to the complexity of forecasting ...
ERA5-Land is a reanalysis dataset providing a consistent view of the evolution of land variables over several decades at an enhanced resolution compared to ERA5. ERA5-Land has been produced by replaying the land component of the ECMWF ERA5 climate reanalysis. Reanalysis combines model data with ...
Box GEP, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC, Ljung GM (2015) Time Series Analysis: forecasting and control. Wiley, New Jersey Google Scholar Broccoli AJ, Manabe S (1992) The effects of orography on Midlatitude Northern Hemisphere dry climates. J Clim 5:1181–1201. ...
Drought forecasting with Standardized Precipitation Index using ECMWF monthly precipitation forecastsdrouhtmeteorological forecastsstandardized precipitation indexAmong various drought indices existing, the Standardized P recipitation Inde x (SP I) is one of the most commonly used. It is simple to compute ...
A set of forecasts and data assimilation experiments with the integrated forecasting system of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts is performed with the monthly LAI climatology datasets as opposed to a vegetation-dependent constant LAI. The monthly LAI is shown to improve the ...
weather forecasting/ southwest monsoonIndiamean monthly analysesoperational NWP centresAD 1995 06 to 09intercomparisonAn intercomparison of the characteristic features of the Indian summer monsoon has been carried out for the monsoon months (June to September) of 1995 using the mean monthly analyses/...
4. Risk Forecasting 4.1. Integration over the Seasonal Ensemble Forecasts of the ECMWF From the 51 members of the ECMWF seasonal forecasts ensemble we retrieve the 𝑍500Z500 over the large domain (Figure 2a). An ensemble is a set of several deterministic forecasts—the members—which differ fr...
4. Risk Forecasting 4.1. Integration over the Seasonal Ensemble Forecasts of the ECMWF From the 51 members of the ECMWF seasonal forecasts ensemble we retrieve the 𝑍500Z500 over the large domain (Figure 2a). An ensemble is a set of several deterministic forecasts—the members—which differ fr...