Notice that the December gap was 4.304 million using the previously reported series, and only 2.041 million using the benchmarked NFP series and the smoothly incorporated population series. In other words, a large portion of thedivergence between CES and CPS measures of employment that...
Not only will the Fed need to support supply chains, but it will have to make up for any contraction of bank credit, so it is not just a matter of filling a monetary gap. Loans to businesses are already contracting as the screenshot below shows. The $850bn expansion of loans and leas...
the Administration is slightly more optimistic, with the gap in levels at 1.1% by end-2016. However, the difference is not particularly large given the size of the standard errors accompanying
–between 2013 and now potential GDP has been reduced a bit more and hence we see the output gap at around 4.5 (or so) we see in the above chart. –DeLong 1% number was bogus all long. He got it from ‘ (19%-14% fall in investment share) x 4 years x 5%/year return on capit...