Focusing on US GDP, consumption and investment growth, our results suggest that the news data contains information not captured by the hard economic indicators, and that the news‐based data are particularly informative for forecasting consumption developments....
to the US equity market (S&P 500), in real terms. Forecasts for both are demonstrated using theHolt-Winters time-series model. We derive the most likely range for real GDP growth, and identify extreme equity valuations aside from inflationary pressures. Shortcut:https://git.io/gdpspx ...