Price outlook: BNEF’s latest forecast for the price of EU emission allowances averages €95/t across 2021-2030 – a downward revision from €104/t in the 2H 2023 Outlook. This reflects ample supply and lower emissions, with prices averaging just €65/t this year, before increasing to €...
The model results indicate that it is crucial to capture short and long term fuel switching in electricity generation and electricity demand response in order to forecast EU Allowance (EUA) prices. In addition, the impact of other policy measures is significant, e.g., support to renewable ...
to actually reduce the amount of CO2 emitted, the quantity of freely available certificates must always be below the forecast emission volume. Alongside a statutory minimum price per metric ton of CO2, this is one of the central parameters of EU emissions trading. Both factors are subject to ...
For now, our mid-term EUA price forecast is unchanged as it already includes speculative trading on the back of an agreement on the MSR by summer 2015. On the compliance side, we expect market participants to only gradually align their CO2 trading strategies to the new post-2019 regulatory s...
ICIS has set up a new section on our EU Carbon Portal to support the key market players in this new trading system, providing detailed insights into the UK ETS market, and the dynamics that can be expected to emerge.
In the short term, European carbon prices are forecast to continue rising to Eur25/mt by the end of the year, up from Eur18.49/mt at the close Monday, after reforms set to kick in next year have already seen the carbon price quadruple within 18 months to reach 10-year highs, the ...
EU Carbon PermitsPrice - Chart - Historical Data - News Summary Forecast Alerts EU Carbon Permits decreased 1.48 EUR or 2.03% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, EU Carbon ...
(b) data exchange, settlement and transparency rules, including in particular rules on transfer capacities for relevant time horizons, estimates and actual values on the allocation and use of transfer capacities, forecast and actual demand of facilities and aggregation thereof including unavailability of...
The CBAM, which would become fully operational in January 2026, will require EU importers to buy "carbon certificates" reflecting the carbon price that would have been paid for the products under the EU's carbon pricing rules, i.e. the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). Impor...
The EU ETS has attracted much attention from the scientific community. Most studies examine the main drivers of the carbon price, or the dynamic relationship between the carbon price and other energy markets. These two questions are closely related, as the financial integration across markets makes...