Election Polls, Margin for Error inhttp://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1322011doi:10.1016/B0-12-369398-5/00074-8Charles W. LeonardEncyclopedia of Social Measurement
As our polling scores above are averages of several different polls, each with unique methodologies and sample sizes, it's hard to say exactly what the margin of error is likely to be - and it will almost certainly differ from state to state. In 20...
In a second round simulation between Bolsonaro and Haddad, Bolsonaro has the lead with 37.2 percent, while Haddad has 36.3 percent. As the poll's margin of error is 2.2 points, the two candidates are technically tied. Against Ciro Gomes, most polls show Bolsonaro losing by a landslide, but ...
“Polls consistently show that this race is within the margin of error,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia. “The closeness of the contest is bad news for Democrats, given that Joe Biden won Virginia by ten points a...
‘This truly is a margin of error race’ Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon has released a video telling supporters, “Why you don’t have to feel anxious and you can feel good” about next week’s election. As the campaign has ...
For years, scholars have documented the frequency to which the margin of error is provided in news reports of polls. What has not been systematically analyzed is whether the stories that report margin of error use this information correctly to interpret and present poll results. This study examine...
Biden has the support of 52% of likely voters in the Tar Heel State, compared to 46% for Trump, the poll showed. That gap is within the poll’s margin of error. Trump won North Carolina by four points in 2016. The state has 15 Electoral College votes at stake on Election Day. ...
Read the latest streaming news and analysis on Joe BIden and the 2020 Presidential Election. Follow today's top polls, candidates, primaries, fundraising, debates and more with POLITICO.
Among statewide polls in races for governor and U.S. Senate, 90% correctly forecast the winner, and many that did not were still within the margin of sampling error. The record in 2000 was similar, though that was an even closer [presidential] election." You can see a chart of state ...
That gap is within the NBC News/Marist poll's margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. In September, the same poll showed a 9 percentage point lead for Biden. Analysts have said that Pennsylvania could provide the decisive Electoral College votes for this year's presidential race. ...