Do Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) forecasts improve seasonal soil moisture prediction? Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L23703.S. Shukla, D. P. Lettenmaier, and L. C. Chen, 2012: Do Cli- mate Forecast System (CFSv2) forecasts improve seasonal soil moisture prediction? Geophys. Res. Lett., ...
Thus, their potentially useful prediction skill can be utilized to make sub-seasonal forecasts of CAOs in a dynamical and statistical hybrid paradigm. Systematic forecast bias is found in both the 7-year averaged winter mean and seasonal cycle, which is tied to the overestimation of damping in ...
calibrate the operational CPC longer-term seasonal predictions (ENSO, etc) • There was also a single 1 season (123-day) hindcast run, initiated from every 0 UTC cycle between these five days, over the 12 year period from 1999-2010. This is required to calibrate the operational CPC...
Perfect reliability would be achieved if, for example, the above normal Nino3.4 SST category were assigned a probability of 40 % in 20 instances over all of the issued forecasts, and the later observed seasonal mean anomalies were in the above normal category in exactly 8 (i.e., 40 %) ...
Predictive Skill of the Seasonal CFSv2 Forecasts for Extreme Weather Patterns in the Southern PlainsMany studies have been done in order to determine what climate triggers are indicative of tornado outbreaks and thus what synoptic patterns are indicative of active severe weather. This study will ...
Evaluation of the CFSv2 45 day forecasts to capture stratospheric events and usefulness for intra-seasonal forecasts of stratospheric winter hemispheric conditionsThe NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) (Saha, 2010) is a coupled atmosphere, land, ocean model. At every 6 hour cycle the...
precipitationCFSv2CONUSmodel evaluationDynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even ...
The success of a seasonal prediction system is dependent on its ability to capture these two ENSO flavors accurately, together with associated teleconnections. The present study analyses the ability of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) in simulating the two El Nio flavors and their ...
The success of a seasonal prediction system is dependent on its ability to capture these two ENSO flavors accurately, together with associated teleconnections. The present study analyses the ability of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) in simulating the two El Nio flavors...
Seasonal precipitation forecasts are important sources of information for early drought and famine warnings in West Africa. This study presents an assessment of the monthly precipitation forecast of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for three agroecological zones (Sudan-Sahel, Sudan, and ...