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A consistent set of neck-and-neck polls is likely to galvanise people to get out and vote, but the Leave camp has an advantage when it comes to voter turnout, as older people are both more likely to vote and to be in favour of Brexit. One thing a close poll won’t do is encourag...
This is particularly so in referendums with weak partisan preferences, and where singular issues dominate voter decision making.doi:10.31219/osf.io/v2mz3Lukas Rudolph
4. Unpredicted patterns of voter turnout, with more voting than expected in areas and groups that were supporting Leave, and lower-than-expected turnout among Remain supporters. 5. And, of course, sampling variability. Here’s Yougov’s rolling average estimate from a couple days before the ...
After all they do represent 48 our of 59 constituencies, Johnson saying "fuck you" to that is a real blow to Scottish voter opinions. Not that he cares about that after those loses up there. But sooner or later it will come down that there gonna have to be another indy because most ...
How did this increase in turnout affect the outcome of the referendum? To thoroughly explore this question we exploit exogenous variation in voting costs on the local level. Large amounts of rainfall on election day made voting slightly more inconvenient in some areas of the UK. Using this ...
Meanwhile, most people in Europe distrust EU politicians, few can name their Euro MPs or the president of the European Commission, and voter turnout is low. We also need to see the larger picture, setting the wider EU and the Eurozone in the context of un...
or mental health. A majority of Labour voters supported Remain but its leaders can’t bring themselves to come all out to stop Brexit. The Tories are overtly right-wing but actually called theEU Referendumto stem the tide of voter defections to UKIP and the far right and also can’t brin...
And finally, age. The generational divide on Brexit has been common knowledge throughout the campaign, and is apparent in the demographic data, even if only weakly. Had turnout been higher among younger people its influence would have been even greater, but as is usually the case, there was...
Voter turnout was 72.2%. The results were tallied on a U.K.-wide basis, but the overall figures conceal stark regional differences: 53.4% of English voters supported Brexit, compared to just 38% of Scottish voters.4 Because England accounts for the vast majority of the U.K.’s ...