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The following are some events that indirectly squeezed back the energy consumption growth ofAdvanced Economies: Oil prices spiked in 1973-1974, leading to recession, indirectly in response to US first hitting oil limits in 1970. Severe recession, in response to Paul Volker’s increase in ...
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For macro aficionados, it increased fiscal spending (arguably to unsustainable levels) and created a stimulus program that has allowed many major economies (including Australia, for the moment) to stay out of recession. For bond aficionados, all this increased government spending fuelled a massive ...
I’ve already said it but the anti-oil business today could be installing the next recession tomorrow. We’ll be trapped in a guessing game of how high gasoline prices could go as our refineries continue to be closed. With the oil companies this year far outperforming “clean energy: stocks...
As the world economy enters recession, we can expect that Item [5a], the shift from goods toward services, to turn around. People with barely enough money for necessities will reduce their use of services such as haircuts and music lessons. Item [5b], globalization and related wage dispa...
However, a "no-deal" could send the economy into a prolonged recession. Regardless of the type of Brexit, it is likely there will be a less stable Europe. A messy Brexit could lead to a range of geopolitical risks, and a smooth Brexit could embolden anti-EU political factions in other ...
Markets like Australia and the UK have underperformed the move in US rates, and we have now rotated our interest rate risk into these markets where less easing is priced and where we expect outperformance vs US rates as growth and inflation slows in these economies. We continue ...
The COVID-19 crisis enhanced the gap in GDP per capita separating the Global North (advanced economies, including Australia and New Zealand) from the Global South (all emerging economies) (Miranda, Blanco, & Nenova, 2021), reversing much of the progress made over the past decade. Vaccine ...
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