Finally, to ensure outliers don’t skew the average, a quadratic ‘kernel weighting function’ is applied to give a lower weight to polls far away from the current average. How are the error ranges calculated? To obtain a range of likely values that each candidate could win if an election...
Think of each chart as a child'spaper chatterbox. If a specific demographic group is under-represented among a candidate's supporters — a smaller share than they are of voters at-large — the chart will fold in. If a group is over-represented — a larger share — it will fold out. ...
The Minnesota senator fired up the crowd ahead of the VP nominee's big speech. Jordain Carney08/21/2024, 11:38pm ET Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) played up vice presidential candidate Tim Walz’s Midwest ties, dad energy and his professional history earlier as she fired up the ...
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in national polls, but the race remains tight in critical swing states as the 2024 US presidential election approaches.
Leaning:This status is introduced when the decision desk is confident that the candidate who is ahead is going to win, but the statistical threshold for calling the race has not yet been met. Projected winner:NBC News has made a projection that a candidate will win. ...
Sanford admitted during their discussion that while he did get some “sympathy votes” after the bombing, he had actually already pulled ahead in the internal polling numbers and didn’t need the bump. Who was the target of the church bombing on The Irrational? Yet, Marisa still wasn’t ...
Cinefamily’s upcoming month-long horror celebration is pretty much the raddest thing ever. Presented in partnership withElijah Wood’s The Woodshed Horror Company,Nightmare Cityis a 30-day midnight video nasty watch-a-thon to commemorate the 30 year anniversary of the video nasty uproar in the ...
The model shifted toward Harris slightly on Monday, Nov. 4, after high-quality polls released over the weekend showed her tied or ahead in the key northern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls from more frequently polled, but less well-regarded, firms had shown a more ...
To compute the average at a particular moment in time, we take every poll released in the past 30 days and assign it a weight based on how long ago it was released, its sample size, and how frequently the pollster releases polls. The moving average is the weighted mean of these polls....
against Simon Clarke, I think, just the sort of the viciousness of his language warning of a massacre of “extinction”, the way in which, you know, his intervention was presented for maximum impact I think has focused minds in some way. What do you think of the flashpoints ahead?