The moving average is the weighted mean of these polls. When a pollster releases the same poll with multiple sample types, we prefer the ‘likely voter’ version of the poll first, then the ‘registered voters’ poll, then finally the ‘all adults’ poll. We also add a ‘dummy poll’ ...
Think of each chart as a child'spaper chatterbox. If a specific demographic group is under-represented among a candidate's supporters — a smaller share than they are of voters at-large — the chart will fold in. If a group is over-represented — a larger share — it will fold out. ...
Who is front-runner Prabowo Subianto? Prabowo Subianto was ahead in the polls before the vote and had a commanding lead as unofficial results trickled in on Monday. With most of the ballots counted, the 72-year-old former army general appeared to have captured more than 55% of the v...
“Because of how close it is, everything matters. Every demographic matters,” he added. While certain states at this point seem to strategists more likely to go to one candidate over another, the polls in the seven states are a complete tossup, with neither candidate leading by more than...
The model shifted toward Harris slightly on Monday, Nov. 4, after high-quality polls released over the weekend showed her tied or ahead in the key northern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls from more frequently polled, but less well-regarded, firms had shown a more ...
Trump leads in several swing state polls, but national polls have Harris ahead. New voting laws in swing states may delay the final election results.NEW YORK - A newly-released batch of political polls have confirmed what many Americans already knew: the November election will be a close one...
"When I ran for president four years ago, I said we are in a battle for the soul of America — and we still are," the president said in thethree-minute-long video. "The question we are facing is whether in the years ahead we have more freedom or less freedom, more r...
The race for the White House is heating up as both President Biden and former President Trump have nearly clinched their parties’ nominations. Trump became the first candidate to jump into the contest when he announced in November 2022 that he would see
all narrow - withinthe margin of error. Harris would become president if she wins where she is currently leading, as well as either one of the two states where there's less than one point in the race. Trump would need to win both tied s...
while a poll released 30 days ago is not weighted at all. Polls with larger sample sizes are also weighted more than those with smaller sample sizes. If a pollster has released more than one poll within the past 30 days, each poll by that pollster is weighted...