A quick look at the “Historical Treasury Yield Spread (10Y-1Y)” graph suggests that historically, an economic recession generally follows once the yield spread drops below 0% (the red Y-axis). This is especially true for recessions during the late 1900s. The yield spread reached an all-...
US Economy has rebounded from the pandemic effect and is now almost at its previous levels. If you see the below graph ofUS GDP growth rate and US Unemployment Rate, they are almost back to normal. The current unemployment rate is at 4%, compared to 6.2% last year during Feb 2021. US...
The second big question is how the H1B applications/ registrations trended in the last 10 years or even before. As you can see in the below graph, for FY 2023, there were 483,927 registrations that were submitted with USCIS and before that for FY 2022, it was 30...
There are times when you think: now things must be easy to comprehend, but as it turns out, they are still not. Let me try once more. See, I was thinking it must have become much easier to gauge the impact in the US of COVID19 when I published the graph below from TheNewAtlantis...
At its September meeting, the Fed released its quarterly "dot plot" forecast, so-named because it represents each Fed committee member as a nameless dot and lays out on a graph where each predicts the federal funds rate will be at the end of this year, next year, and two years from...
This graph illustrates that real GDP expectations for the second half of 2024 vary, but a soft landing is becoming consensus. Nonfarm payroll employment posted a 175,000 increase in April, below consensus and lower than the average monthly gains of 251,000 in 2023...
(9) < 0.5. UE = unemployment, FDE = federal debt, EXP = federal expenditures, FF = fed’s interest rate, M2 = monetary supply, M2, INF = inflation (we use the consumer price index), GDP = gross domestic product, TRE = tax receipts, GIN = Gini’s index, but reconstructed fromMu...
The graph shows the 30-day average for each month to depict an annual trend. The rate is created by adding unemployed workers, who are looking for work, to the amount of workers employed part time but seeking full-time work. In July 2017, the U.S. underemployment rate was 12.5 percent...
Figure 1. European Union natural gas production divided between natural gas extracted within the European Union and that imported from elsewhere, either by pipeline or as LNG. Based on data from the2023 Statistical Review of World Energy,produced by the Energy Institute. ...
30-year yield4.762% Treasury yield % Current Treasury Yield Curve CurrentFeb. 2024Feb. 2023 1M3M6M1Y2Y3Y5Y7Y10Y20Y30Y 0%2.5%5%7.5% GuruFocus.com What is Yield Curve? Created with Highstock 6.0.2Treasury yield %Demo: Yield Curves in Three ShapesApr. 2021May 2007Aug. 20001M3M6M1Y2Y3Y...