ELECTION forecastingELECTIONSKRIGINGFORECASTINGPUBLIC opinion pollsTIME perspectiveWe present a hierarchical Dirichlet regression model with Gaussian process priors that enables accurate and well-calibrated forecasts for U.S. Senate elections at varying time horizons. This Bayesian model provides a balance ...
We're just days away from yet another pivotal US election, with polls showing candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in an extraordinarily tight race. With both contenders bringing executive branch experience, the implications for America's technology sector hang in the balance. What...
In the gubernatorial election, 40% plan to vote for incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak and Republican Joe Lombardo respectively. Twelve percent are undecided, and 4% plan to support someone else. Since theJuly Emerson poll,Sisolak’s support has decreased by four points while Lombardo’s support has...
No Election Pending Results Polls Open Democrat Win Gain Republican Win Gain Other Win Gain Counties are colored red or blue when the % expected vote reporting reaches a set threshold. This threshold varies by state and is based on patterns of past vote reporting and expectations about how the...
If the move provoked cries of censorship, we were reminded how much twitter shaped the election in the valleys of areas colored red, where a third of pro-Trump tweets among over a million tweets issued by automated bots, and pro-Trump rallies belying his lower standings in most polls save...
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said: “Men and women split in opposite directions for US Senate candidates: men break for Bolduc 53% to 41%, while women break for Hassan 54% to 38%. In the Governor Race, Sununu leads men by 25 points and women by one per...
The performance of the equity market is also contingent on the election outcome for the House and the Senate. For instance, a divided government could see Trump pivot to the use of executive powers, focusing on trade and tariffs. This could adversely affect equity markets in the rest of ...
In 2019 she was ranked as the most liberal person in the Senate, to the left of Sanders, by Govtrack. She supported the Green New Deal and, for a while, Medicare for All. She co-wrote an environmental bill with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and proposed spending plans that one analyst reckoned...
Each state has two Senators and at least one Representative. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, while 33 Senate seats will also be decided in November.
Trump in talks to replace defence nominee Hegseth Florida governor Ron DeSantis among those who could replace Fox News host December 3 2024 White House Watch Can Kash Patel win Senate confirmation to lead the FBI? Plus, the hedge funds that made major profits on the back of ‘Trump trades’...