The Chief Investment Office’s most up-to-date views on the investment implications of the 2024 presidential and congressional races.
Since it is such a dominant topic this morning, there’s no point in completely ignoring the debate between the US presidential candidates. However, the effect on the currency market was minimal at best, Commerzbank’s Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. The effect on ...
This is a great recipe for risk assets, which we think will finish 2024 on a strong note almost regardless of election outcome. Of course, it is worth considering how different presidential and congressional election results could impact cross-asset performance. This is not to bet on a ...
and the holdings in EUR, YEN, GBP, CAD, RMB, etc. are translated into USD at the exchange rate at the time. So the exchange rates between the USD and other reserve currencies change the magnitude of thenon-USD assets– but not of the USD-asse...
A strengthening Chinese economy could boost demand for European imports, potentially lifting EURUSD. However, current economic conditions in China introduce uncertainties. This chart reveals a recent slowdown in China’s credit growth, with banks being the primary contributors while non-bank lending...
If this formula remains valid for the years from 2005 till 2030, it shows that the peak year will have shifted from 2020 to 2024 in 9 years. The lack of agreement for the logistic model with the actual comes from two sources. The first is clear from all the discussion that have taken...
Leon Romero is all in on Javier Milei, the outsider presidential candidate in Argentina whose radical proposals to revive the economy have made him the favorite heading into this weekend’s vote. “I want to bet on something different,” Romero, a 23-year-old accounting assistant at a local...
- In parallel, USD weaker as aftermath of first presidential debate between Trump and Harris hasmedia touting Harris as winner of the night. -Sterlingrose into theUK GDP databut sold off onwider trade deficit, lower production and flat GDP for July. Analyst...
Long USD positions against the CNY and EUR can help hedge tariff risks in a Trump win. The US Presidential election remains a coin flip, but one thing we feel confident saying is that whoever becomes the next president will inherit a rather healthy US economy. Q3 GDP is tracking at a ro...
This is a great recipe for risk assets, which we think will finish 2024 on a strong note almost regardless of election outcome. Of course, it is worth considering how different presidential and congressional election results could impact cross-asset performance. This is not to bet on a ...