Greer, M.: Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts. Int. J. Forecast. 19, 291–298 (2003) Article Google Scholar Hafer, R.W., Hein, S.E.: Comparing futures and survey forecasts of near-term treasury-bill rates. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May...
Timmermann (2009): "Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach," Journal of Econemetrics, 150, 297-311.Guidolin, M. and A. Timmermann (2009): "Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach," Journal of Econe...
US Inflation Forecast for the Rest of 2024, 2025, 2026 & Beyond So, what are the US inflation predictions of leading observers? In particular, what is their US inflation forecast for 2025? Well, for any US inflation forecast, it’s worth considering what has happened in the past and where...
Overall, we forecast consumer spending will rise 2.8% this year and another 2.4% in 2025 before growing at a slower 1.7% pace in 2026. Lower interest rates should help boost demand for durable goods, boosting spending on that category by 4.7% in 2025 before tariffs bring growth to just 1.9...
In this framework we attempt to capture the dynamics present in the sample of curves to forecast future values for the yield at a given maturity without imposing any parametric structure. In order to evaluated forecast performance of the proposed estimator, we consider four forecast horizons and ...
We compare the TAR model to its simple linear AR alternative in terms of out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Preliminary results using the RMSE criterion indicate that TAR forecasts are more sensitive to the estimation period and that they involve considerably more uncertainty at long horizons, as ...
Still, they forecast interest rates of roughly 5.1% at the end of 2023 - unchanged since December - implying the Fed is poised to stop raising rates soon. Mr Powell described the effect of the recent turmoil as the "equivalent of a rate hike". ...
Comments from Andrew Bailey have sent the pound sharply lower, below $1.25 to a level not seen since June. Speaking to MPs, he said the UK is much nearer now to the top of the cycle. So, not only is the Bank of England forecast to go softer on rate hikes going forwa...
The Q4 2023 US Economic Forecast explores the state of the US economy, amid challenges like a runup in interest rates to fight inflation, federal budget policy volatility, and growing geopolitical tensions.
It wasn't too long ago that many forecasters thought today's meeting would be the last time interest rates would be held at their more than two-decades high. Today, the Federal Reserve held their interest rates at the current level of 5.25% to 5.50%, however, it likely will stay there...