对非法移民的低估可能对过去一年国内生产总值(GDP)与国内总收入(GDI)之间的差距的急剧增加做出了适度的贡献。我们怀疑,GDP,作为经济活动的支出型度量,使用销售和生产数据构建,可能已经抓住了最近的移民潮对消费的推动,而GDI,作为经济活动的收入型度量,可能低估了支付给无证工人的总就业和报酬。将最近的移民工人纳入GDI...
In addition to the whole discussion about what happened during the Centenary of WWI Armistice and how and why Macron made it his mission to prevent Putin and Trump from meeting, we discuss important intel and predictions. Compared to the written version, the actual podcast has more info and di...
We find a significant negative correlation between the rate of growth of gdp and the cross-sectional variance and skewness of growth rates of sales. On the other hand there is positive correlation, at business cycle frequencies with kurtosis. In order to explore this further we turn to the ...
We present a quantitative characterisation of the fluctuations of the\nannualized growth rate of the real US GDP per capita growth at many scales,\nusing a wavelet transform analysis of two data sets, quarterly data from 1947\nto 2015 and annual data from 1800 to 2010. Our main finding is ...
While agriculture accounts for only 4% of global economic activity, it comprises more than a quarter of GDP and more than half of the employment in some of the least developed countries, which are among the most exposed to extreme weather and the least equipped to invest in adaptation. ...
The $USD will continue on, until such time as it does not. When that happens and what precipitates it will be up to others, not the US. Though we’re doing a damn good job of trying to hasten that moment along. At present time, there is no replacement for the $USD. In t...
If DC stops printing money (which creates citizen inflation), then Treasury interest rates rise fast (not too many true – non gvt -buyers want to hold low-to-no yielding paper issued by a debtor with debt-to-GDP ratio well above 100%). ...
GDP 5.0 3.5 1.8 4.9 0.4 -1.6 -2.1 -6.6 -5.1 -0.7 -8.9 -2.8 -3.4 N/A * Total net inflows exceed net outflows by $148 billion due to statistical errors and omissions; some of this could reflect "gray market" money as well as the fact that some countries do...
US GDP The other big focus this morning is the US growth report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict GDP likely cooled to around 2.5% in the first quarter, with the figures still potentially suggesting persistent inflationary pressures. Traders have been scaling back their expectations for Feder...
Now, we’ve come to understand quite viscerally how crises that begin by threatening economies overseas ultimately impact American workers, families, and businesses. With the COVID-19 pandemic, a viral outbreak across the globe led to the sharpest drop in GDP since the Great Depression. It left...