While there has been much attention given to the US budget deficit in the last month, very little has been given to the likely trade deficit in this new fiscal year. This is a bad omission, because the evidence is that a budget deficit, before adjusting for variations in savings drives th...
to US-Mexico border security, potentially under the threat of trade retaliation. China’s growing investment footprint in Mexico would be another source of tension (we would expect a Biden administration to handle this more delicately), as would Mexico’s widening trade surplus with the US (whic...
"CBO estimates that under its baseline budget projections, the Treasury would exhaust those measures and run out of cash sometime between July and September of this year. The Deficit Control Act requires CBO to project spending," the office said. "The fiscal trajectory is unsustainable," Swagel ...
A Democrat victory would likely be more of the status quo. Harris is the frontrunner now that Biden has dropped out, but her odds of victory is still hovering around 40%. A Democrat victory will temper deficit worries somewhat and fiscal deficit expectations should not differ too much from t...
"High inflation under the Biden administration was one of the key factors that sent Trump back to the White House. Trump may not care about how the Democrats are angry about his policies; but he needs to care about the reaction of...
The deficit would widen under a Red Sweep, at a time when investors are becoming incrementally more focused on the trajectory of US debt. In addition to tax cuts and tariffs, a Trump presidency would come with potential tailwinds of a lighter regulatory touch in sectors like financials and ...
According to the brief, global trade and liberalization have helped lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty worldwide and helped raise US GDP tenfold since World War II, but protectionism under president Donald Trump and his successor President Joe Biden undermined US authority globally....
Former President Donald Trump is poised for a face-off with President Joe Biden in November’s US presidential elections. Despite a storm of legal challenges, Trump’s campaign juggernaut rolls on, with polls suggesting a lead over Biden. Trump’s decisi
Energy, not climate, is expected to be one of the centerpieces of the new administration. US Treasury nominee Scott Bessent has publicly opposed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), telling US media that the deficit will be shrunk through “deregulation, energy dominance and re-privatizing...
The Congressional Budget Office estimates this would add $2.8 trillion to its baseline deficit forecast just through 2033 compared with letting them expire under current law. Article content Democrats will advocate “a return to Build Back Better and see a push on the corporate rate, on the...