2013. "Business cycle dynamics across the US states", The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 13(1): 795-822.Magrini S., Gerolimetto M., Duran H. E. (2013). Business Cycle Dynamics across the US States, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,13(1), 795-822....
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Allowing for asymmetry over the business cycle, we find that the output elasticity of foreign investments is higher in booms than in recessions. An increase in exchange rate volatility, on the other hand, has a strong deterrent effect on US foreign investments. This effect is fairly stable over...
Further rate cuts from the Fed should help contribute to a positive environment for business investment. This should be felt in particularly rate-sensitive categories of investment like housing and commercial real estate, both of which have been weak during the current high-interest rate environment....
The search for and dating of a possible european business cycle, has been inconclusive. At this stage, there is no consensus on the existence of such a cycle, or of its periodicity and amplitude, or of the relationship of individual member countries to that cycle. Yet cyclical convergence is...
Creal, Drew, Siem Jan Koopman, and Eric Zivot, "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-Varying Multivariate Trend-Cycle Model," mimeograph, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (2008).Creal, Drew, Siem Jan Koopman, and Eric Zivot (2008), "The Effect of the ...
The analysis suggests that these shocks are important in understanding a range of post-war US macrodata, and that they are tightly linked to the business cycle. Our results, along with some results in Christiano et al. (2007) and De Graeve (2008), suggest a renewed focus on the role of...
The business cycle indicator yielded through this method is shown to bear a resemblance with band-pass filtered output, and our results suggest it possesses better revision performance than other commonly applied filters. Highlights ► We use singular spectrum analysis to disentangle the US GDP into...
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We develop a flexible business cycle indicator that accounts for potential time variation in macroeconomic variables. The coincident economic indicator is based on a multivariate trend cycle decomposition model and is constructed from a moderate set of US macroeconomic time series. In particular, we con...