The so-called super poll by YouGov predicts that Johnson will return triumphant to 10 Downing Street after the Dec. 12 election with 359 seats, giving the Conservatives a comfortable 68-seat majority in the House of Commons. Jeremy Corbyn's main opposition Labour Party would lose 51 seats, t...
This time around the incumbent, Rishi Sunak, goes into the election around 20 points adrift. But the one fact to bear in mind is that to win, Keir Starmer has to overturn Labour’s worst defeat since 1935. Even a one seat majority will be an epic turnaround of political...
Lee Anderson has become Reform UK's first elected MP, winning back his seat of Ashfield.Friday 5 July 2024 02:46, UK ShareThis is a modal window. Video UnavailableHe won the seat comfortably, while his old party - the Conservatives - crashed to fourth....
The bad news for the Conservatives was made worse by the loss of one of their seats in the House of Commons. In a by-election in the British seaside resort of Blackpool, the Labour Party won the seat from the Conservatives. The 26-percent swing in the voting in Blackpool would point ...
The ‘red wall’ has fallen. Brick by brick. Almost every bit of it. Seats held by Labour for decades have been seized by the Tories. To me, this is the most exciting thing in this extraordinary election. It feels almost revolutionary. Working people have smashed years and years of tradi...
The election also brought some other surprises. TheAlliance Party of Northern Irelandwon its first seat ever in the House of Commons, oustingDemocratic Unionist PartyleaderPeter Robinson. The Green Party also won its first seat, capturing the seat of Brighton Pavilion along the southern coast. And...
Even as gamblers and betting houses pore over the latest polls, there's some debate over whether betting is a better barometer for what's actually happening in an election. “It’s almost as if the gambling markets are a kind of secondary human-interpreted form of prediction ...
One of the most ill-informed comments I’ve heard from a politician in recent months came courtesy of the Labour MP Frank Field. In the aftermath of theHeywood & Middletonby-election, he inferred that, thanks to Ukip, there was now no longer such a thing as a safe Labour seat. “All...
Predicts election results given polls and % of tactical voting.Smarkets - https://smarkets.com/event/829237/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-ge-seats Prediction market on election outcomes including all seats.Project Ideas - looking for people...
In a blog post entitled “Poll Dancing,”ComRes chairman Andrew Hawkins explained what he thought had happened, pointing out that pollsters had predicted percentages rather than seat numbers. These had a plus or minus 3% margin of error and the poll on the election eve had been “statistically...