CNN exit polls showed a significantgender gapin the results, with the majority of women backing Harris and the majority of men backing Trump. Trump made significant gains with Latino men, winning their vote by 8 percentage points four years after he lost them by 23 points. He also won over...
NEWTON — Haley is making her case to some last-minute undecided caucusgoers — and winning over at least one. During her third stop of a final pre-caucus push in PB’s Pub, Haley asked for a showing of hands from those who hadn’t yet made up their minds. “We’ve got one guy...
In past presidential primaries, four candidates have polled, on average, between 40 and 60 percent in national polls in the first half of the year before the election. And three of them won their party’s nomination: then-Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole in 1996, then-Vice President Al Gore...
In polls, she's winning only about a third of potential voters. She may be used to playing the role of David, but not all Goliaths fall in defeat. —Monica Potts, 538 Show More ByGalen Druke Feb 25, 2024, 6:12 AM CST Listen to this podcast while you wait! If you ar...
This model gives us a way of answering a key question of polling analysis: How durable is Candidate X’s lead given historical ranges of movement and measurement error in the polls? As of writing, this model gives Trump around a 78 percent chance of winning the nomination (sound familiar?)...
It seems like Cuellar, who was first elected in 2004, might be able to hold onto his seat tonight. But he'll have to work for it. And — who knows — maybe winning by a narrow margin tonight will convince Cuellar to fall in line with his party more. Though he's a relatively relia...
Former President Donald Trump has won Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis coming in second. Trump’s victory on Monday night gives him a strong start in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination as the cont
ByNathaniel Rakich Jan 16, 2024, 6:20 AM CST What the polls say According to the polls, Trump is on his way to a huge win in Iowa, while Haley and DeSantis are in a close race for second place. As of 9 a.m. Eastern this morning, when we ran our Iowa polling average for the...
Polls in 2024: Low error, medium bias Despite theearly narrativeswirling around in the media, 2024 was a pretty good year to be a pollster. According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at ...
Former President Trump won the 2024 presidential election over Vice President Harris. Latino voters shifted by 25 points towards Trump in the 2024 White House race, with the GOP nominee winning 45 percent to Harris’s 53 percent, according toNBC News’ exit polls. ...