Every day, movement in a given state's polling average is a function of changes in both polls of that state and national polls. The relationship also works the other way — if we see a flood of state polls with Biden improving by 3 points, his national average will increase, too. But...
First, I wanted to know how much I could trust these early horse-race polls, so I booted up 538's spreadsheet of historical polling data. This dataset has national polls going back to 1944 and state-level polls going back to the 1950s (though state polling really ramps u...
More people have cast their ballots in-person than by mail, with more than 42.6 million votes submitted at polling places in-person and over 35.3 million mail ballots returned. Upwards of 67.4 million mail ballots have been requested, according to the University of Florida's figures. Slightly m...
This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. The default view is Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. To view averages including ...
Trump’s margins were smaller in nearly every primary state than the polls indicated, but that doesn’t mean surveys showing him leading President Joe Biden are wrong.
The national polling is bolstered by state polling that could also signal trouble for the president. A poll from The New York Times/Siena College, for example, shows Biden leading Trump 49% to 41% in the battleground state ofArizona– a traditionally Republican state that has only supported ...
Early exit polling shows New Hampshire Republican voters are unhappy and dissatisfied with the state of the country. And among both Trump and Haley supporters, defeating President Biden isn't the most important candidate quality to them. Among New Hampshire Republican primary voters, only 18% ar...
A small polling error could mean a blowout either way Polls aren’t really very helpful when it comes to forecasting “unusual” elections. This is why we were one of the very few to forecast a Trump win in the 2016 elec...
it won't necessarily benefit Trump. The direction of polling error isimpossible to predict in advance, and polls have overestimated Republicans plenty of times in the past. In a scenario where the polls overestimate Trump's margin by 4 points in every state, Harris would win all seven...
At the state level, meanwhile, Trump numbers show improvement. A Suffolk University poll released at noon on Thursday showed the Republican leading Clinton in Florida by one point, 46 percent to 45 percent, which signifies a 6-point gain for Trump there since early August. The poll was condu...