In this study, deep convolutional neural network (CNN) models of stimulated tropical cyclone intensity (TCI), minimum central pressure (MCP), and maximum 2 min mean wind speed at near center (MWS) were constructed based on ocean and atmospheric reanalysis, as well Best Track of tropical ...
The meteorological significance of this work lies in its ability to offer a reliable, real-time tool for cyclone intensity prediction, which could be integrated into operational weather forecasting systems. The finding shows that there is potential for practical use of this method....
Tropical cyclone intensity estimation is a challenging task as it required domain knowledge while extracting features, significant pre-processing, various sets of parameters obtained from satellites, and human intervention for analysis. The inconsistency of results, significant pre-processing of data, comple...
1.Introduction a.Overviewofintensitypredictionaccuracy Accordingtoa1987surveyofalltropicalcyclone (TC)forecastcentersintheworld,theoverridingTC researchemphasishasbeenplacedontrackforecasting withlittleinvestigationonintensitychange(McBrideand Holland1987).Thepastdecadehaswitnessedlittleim- provement(DeMariaandKaplan1994...
[256] However, scientists are not as skillful at predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones.[257] The lack of improvement in intensity forecasting is attributed to the complexity of tropical systems and an incomplete understanding of factors that affect their development. New tropical cyclone ...
Estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity by using satellite observations is essential for operational TC warnings in the western North Pacific basin where reconnaissance aircraft observations are not conducted. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) typically uses a method of estimating the maximum wi...
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We conclude that: 1) the flow on the convective scales is not deterministic and only those asymmetric features that survive in an ensemble average of many realizations can be regarded as robust; 2) there is an intrinsic uncertainty in the prediction of maximum intensity using either maximum wind...
Rapid intensification (RI) is an essential process in the development of strong tropical cyclones and a major challenge in prediction. RI in offshore regions is more threatening to coastal populations and economies. Although much effort has been devoted
(2019) reviewed the significant progress in our understanding and prediction of subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity during 2015–2018. The current review provides a similar summary for the subsequent four years. A great advance in predicting subseasonal TC activity in the last four years has...