Our measure for interest rate uncertainty is the implied volatility of at-the-money options on futures of five-year Treasury notes (henceforth the “yield implied volatility” or YIV). We first show that YIV provides substantial forward-looking information about both the growth rate and the volati...
2020-2024: The low-rate environment caused by economic stimulus and recovery strategies saw annuity rates dip as low as 3%, but recent rate increases in 2023-2024 signal a potential upswing. Expert Predictions for Treasury and Annuity Rates in 2025 Based on historical patterns and economic forecas...
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes dipped below 4.5% for the first time in over a month before rebounding to more than 4.6%. Oil prices stabilized after tumbling for most of the week. Bitcoin jumped to nearly $38,000 for the first time since May 2022 before retreating. Disney (DIS) s...
January 2013 Publication date:Jan 2013 Onward and upward As a new calendar year starts we all have plans for 2013. Treasury Today continues to expand and we are working on three new initiatives this year. We are launching Treasury Today Asia; thus responding to the many requests we have rece...
tea leaves that the Fed put out there, is now starting to see another rate hike over the next few months – if not in June, then at one of the following meetings. And it is getting ready for that rate hike and is starting to price it in. That’s what the six-month yield shows....
7-year Treasury yield trades back above 5% as selloff in government debt continues after Powell’s appearance Oct. 19, 2023 at 1:50 p.m. ETby Vivien Lou Chen ‘Bears are back in town,’ pushing 10-year Treasury yield closer to 5% after U.S. data ...
Think long bonds, China and steep yield curves. CYBDSUMEUFN Stock Market Opinion & Predictions Dec 18, 2013 6:00 AM EST Don't Get the 'Short End' of the Stick If you participated in a short-term bond fund's appreciation, this could be a timely opportunity to hit the eject button. ...
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Furthermore, the essay anticipates a bull steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, preventing a market fire sale of non-TBTF bank stocks. However, Hayes warns that Yellen’s influence has limits, and the potential market upheaval could return by the end of 2024. Arthur Hayes concludes by...
predictions of skyrocketing U.S. budget deficits and the belief that several dynamics could sustain inflation rates significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% benchmark. The hedge fund mogul even suggested that he wouldn’t be taken aback if the 30-year yield soared to 5.5% in the ...