个人一点愚见,看现在us yield curve,未来应该还是要压低短债,拉高长债。TLT是一直rolling,没有明确的maturity date,不知道是不是一个好的选择 个人美股账户记录-2024年7月8日(周一夜间,单位:人民币) --- 1、昨日收益+0.4万,本年收益+1.4万。 2、TLT昨日收到7月分红611.31刀,扣税183.41刀😤; 昨日操作:...
从上周五开始的TLT sell off很大程度上是因为term premia 上涨,由于presidential debate上一边倒的态势导致市场priced in trump当选的情况,共和党同时控制参众两院,pro higher inflation(higher tariff, tax reform, etc.)-> higher yield-> lower price 同时pro risky asset. 但是我认为市场 overweight term premia f...
The TLT Is Responding to Macro Forces High inflation rates are driving the Fed to raise rates aggressively. While the Fed mainly controls the front of the yield curve. The back of the yield curve, which is the part the TLT represents, also responds as shorter-dated maturities rise. The ris...
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一,美国国债20+年ETF$美国国债20+年ETF-iShares(TLT)$ TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Expense Ratio 0.15%Div Frequency MonthlyDiv Rate (TTM) $3.34Yield (TTM) 3.46%Assets (AUM) $48.54BVolume 50,401,4785 years LAO WAI Analy...
bps,那么在当前市场已经 priced in recession risk的情况下,市场会怎么看:1️⃣fed disappointed market,tlt出现reversion 2️⃣another serious policy mistake,加强了市场对于recession risk的定价预期,tlt继续暴涨,且上限提高(因为会下调长期经济增长预期,继续打压nominal yield+lower inflation,反而会提高tlt PT)...
回复@Zack_Capital: 我觉得fair value大概4cut左右,大概这个位置,front end 对TLT影响就没那么dominating, 可以考虑curve因素,95左右我可能考虑重新买入upside call//@Zack_Capital:回复@Bear_Prince:请问下大佬,tlt看到95以下的话是打算fade to 3 cut吗。因为我自己的模型算出来4 cut,20年期nominal yield大概是...