"It was a great report, but you didn't see the market move much because GDP is backward-looking. It told us what happened in October and November and December," North said. "It's great for historical patterns, but it doesn't really tell us much about where...
The US economy is on its final descent to a soft landing 美国经济正处于软着陆的最后阶段 高盛研究公司(Goldman Sachs Research)预测,在克服了今年对经济衰退的担忧后,美国经济将在2024年再次轻松超过市场预期。 预计2024年美国GDP全年将增长2.1%,而彭博社调查的经济学家预测普遍为1%。高盛研究(Goldman Sachs Re...
Powerful employment gains and a resilient consumer are at the heart of the growing economy. Nonfarm payrolls have grown by nearly 1.7 million so far in 2023 and the 3.6% unemployment rate for June is the same as it was a year ago. Consumers, meanwhile, continue to spend, and sentiment gau...
The growth hit from US trade policy is greater elsewhere. One key finding in our research on tariffs is the important impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on growth in the Euro area. The left chart in Exhibit 4 summarizes research suggesting that a rise in TPU to the peak levels of ...
In the first quarter of 2023 US real GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 1.1%, according to the initial estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis—down significantly from 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, the headline figure masks diverging trends; private consumption ...
GOVERNMENT HIRING SPREE PROPPING UP THE US JOB MARKET "The economy slowed, but still doesn’t appear to be at risk of stalling," said Jim Baird, Plante Morgan Financial Advisors CIO. "The combination of slower growth and sticky inflation will undoubtedly increase the whispers around potential st...
Why might the U.S. economy avoid recession in 2023? David Mericle:Our probability of a recession over the next 12 months stands at 35%. Part of our disagreement with consensus arises from our more optimistic view on whether a recession is necessary to tame inflation. We think that a contin...
Good news isn’t likely on that front: we forecast recessions in both the euro area and UK, and near-zero growth in the US for 2023. Normally, that sort of weak growth would trigger aggressive monetary policy easing, but that won’t be in the cards for 2023. Inflat...
Due to Covid-19, the US economy suffered its most severe contraction in over a decade. Businesses from other countries with a large chunk of their operations in the US suffered equally. The energy crisis, the interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine made a bad situation worse. ...
% of connections will be 5G by 2030 The US and Canada are among the global leaders in terms of 5G adoption, with adoption rates expected to reach 59% in the US, and 34% in Canada by the end of 2023. This reflects the ambitious rollout plans of operators and a strong demand from con...