"It was a great report, but you didn't see the market move much because GDP is backward-looking. It told us what happened in October and November and December," North said. "It's great for historical patterns, but it doesn't really tell us much about where we're h...
The growth hit from US trade policy is greater elsewhere. One key finding in our research on tariffs is the important impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on growth in the Euro area. The left chart in Exhibit 4 summarizes research suggesting that a rise in TPU to the peak levels of ...
Powerful employment gains and a resilient consumer are at the heart of the growing economy. Nonfarm payrolls have grown by nearly 1.7 million so far in 2023 and the 3.6% unemployment rate for June is the same as it was a year ago. Consumers, meanwhile, continue to spend, and sentiment gau...
GOVERNMENT HIRING SPREE PROPPING UP THE US JOB MARKET "The economy slowed, but still doesn’t appear to be at risk of stalling," said Jim Baird, Plante Morgan Financial Advisors CIO. "The combination of slower growth and sticky inflation will undoubtedly increase the whispers around potential st...
The U.S. economy likely ended 2023 on solid footing, but momentum is expected to have cooled from earlier in the year as consumers battle high inflation and interest rates. Economists expect the Commerce Department's first reading of gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and ser...
Why might the U.S. economy avoid recession in 2023? David Mericle:Our probability of a recession over the next 12 months stands at 35%. Part of our disagreement with consensus arises from our more optimistic view on whether a recession is necessary to tame inflation. We think that a contin...
Article tags EconomyForecastingAmericasCountry Analysis In the first quarter of 2023 US real GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 1.1%, according to the initial estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis—down significantly from 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, the headline...
No, the near-term outlook for the US economy remains unchanged. The first thing to acknowledge is that the US economy is currently in a good place and carries solid momentum. Change to immigration and regulatory policy could have a short-term economic impact in the first half of...
Robin Xing: Your question is very timely. Following the massive turmoil in global financial markets since early August, there's heightened concern about the monetary policies of central banks in the US, Japan, and beyond. The origins of this turmoil can be traced to the Bank of Japan's inte...
Optimism about the strength of the US economy fell in the second quarter of 2024, the lowest it’s been since the end of 2023. This follows the first quarter’s spike in optimism, which was the highest since 2022. Mixed feelings, which accounted for the majority of consumer sentim...