terms of trade shockspersistencecurrent account balanceWhat is the effect of shocks to the terms of trade on a country's current account position? The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect predicts that an adverse shock to the terms of trade will worsen the current account balance; in contrast, the ...
Terms-of-tradeDeveloping countriesThe literature suggests that terms-of-trade (TOT) is a key determinant of the developing countries' macroeconomic performance, including its likely impact on the level of national saving. The main objective of this paper is to examine the extent to which the TOT...
trade shock, others have recovered quickly or even managed to increase average growth. Our assumption is that appropriate macroeconomic policy, supported by structural reforms and solid institutions, can help revive growth after a terms of trade decline. We will also attempt to ...
However, under the same condition, an anticipated ToT shock leads to the J-curve effect. We find that our main result, concerning the J-curve phenomenon, continues to hold even if the assumption of rational expectations about the ToT is relaxed. Further analysis reveals that the presence of ...
Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries The relationship between temporary terms of trade shocks and household saving in developing countries is examined. It is first shown that, from a theoretic... OCM Reinhart - 《Staff Papers》 被引量: 594发表: 1992年 The...
Term of Trade Shocks in a Monetary Union: An Application to West-Africa We propose a two-country DSGE model of the Dutch disease in a monetary union, calibrated on Nigeria and WAEMU. Three monetary regimes are successively studied at the union level: a flexible exchange rate with constant mon...
The halving of oil prices, during a short period between 2014 and 2015, has generated major terms of trade losses for oil exporting countries. This terms of trade shock has economy﹚ide effects and significant distributive impacts. This paper, using a macro﹎icro simulation model, describes and...
Terms-of-tradevolatility was the highest for low-income countries, almost two thirds higher than high-income countries [...] daccess-ods.un.org daccess-ods.un.org 低收入国家的贸易条件波动达到了最高水平,几乎比高收入国 家高三分之二,比中等收入国家高三分之一。
An improvement in the terms of trade represents an increase in domestic purchasing power. If the improvement is temporary, the effect on the current account is equivalent to a positive and temporary income shock (see Section 4.2): it causes an increase in the current-account balance. Greater ...
Central banks in emerging markets often grapple with understanding the monetary policy response to an inter-sectoral terms of trade shock. To address this, we develop a three sector closed economy NK-DSGE model calibrated to India. Our framework can be generalized to other emerging markets and dev...