I then adjusted these predictions by adding additional votes for Democratic candidates uniformly in each seat until the party would hypothetically win 51 total seats in the Senate. Once I figured out what that number was each cycle, I computed the ...
Midterms Mayhem Episode 2: Key Congressional races to track in the midterms by Emma Gao, Ella Yee, and Anika Maji • November 8, 2022 This is the second installment of Midterms Mayhem, a podcast where Aquila staff members discuss the 2022 midterm elections with upper school community ...
How The Internet Correctly Predicted 36 Of 37 Senate RacesRandall Lane
WASHINGTON (AP) — Top Republican senators made pessimistic predictions Wednesday about securing a bipartisan coronavirus relief package before the November election, signaling instead they will just try to pass legislation that would avoid a federal shutdown as lawmakers head home to campaign. ...
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, one of the best political strategists in modern times, has long warned candidates and campaign strategists to never fall in love with the Senate map. That is, no matter which seats are up in a given election year, Senate races can be quirky and ...
The map of key Senate races largely matches up with the map of presidential battlegrounds. Aside from Wisconsin and Illinois, where Republican incumbent Sens. Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Mark Kirk (Ill.) are fighting for their political lives in blue states, the most competitive Senate contests are...
2022 and 2024. Then, I fitted alinear regression modelto predict the Democratic margin in concurrent contested Senate races over the whole time frame based on the state and cycle in question, controlling for the candidates running for each party. Next, I u...
2022 and 2024. Then, I fitted alinear regression modelto predict the Democratic margin in concurrent contested Senate races over the whole time frame based on the state and cycle in question, controlling for the candidates running for each party. Next, I used that model ...
Harry's Races to Watch Most competitive racesLargest swing The 15 races with the smallest margin between partiesPredictions Scorecard Circles are drawn to mark each prediction made since The Forecast started. The timeline below shows a detailed history of the estimates. +1-56-1011-1516-20>20+1...
But McConnell said he expects to get a “definitive answer” about the results of the North Carolina and Maine Senate races today. Adding that it’s less clear in Michigan where it’s neck-and-neck between Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and GOP challenger John James. ...