whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations; however, convergence may be exponentially slow. We propose a deterministic method, based on a variational mean-field approximation of the ERGM's normalizing ...
Safe asset shortages can expose an economy to liquidity traps. The nature of these traps is determined by the cyclicality of the bond premium. A counter-cyclical bond premium opens the possibility of expectations-driven liquidity traps in which small issuances of government debt crowd out private d...
摘要：We study the impact of changing choice set size on the quality of choices in health insurance markets. Using novel data on enrolment and medical claims for school district employees in the state of Oregon, we document that the average employee could save $600 by switching to a lower co...
The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 3, May 2023, Pages 1084–1124,https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac044 Abstract We study dynamic matching in exchange markets with easy- and hard-to-match agents. A greedy policy, which attempts to match agents upon arrival, ignores the posit...
Delivered at the First Session of the 14th National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China on March 5, 2023 Li Keqiang Premier of the State Council Fellow Deputies, The term of this government is about to come to a close. On behalf of the State Council, I will now repor...
of future income risk. This raises output and employment unless monetary policy raises the nominal interest rate. In an analysis of the U.S. economy over 2008–2014, UI benefit extensions had a contemporaneous output multiplier around 1. The unemployment rate would have been as much as 0.4 pp...
the response of the economy to a change in the environment or policy into two parts: the direct response at the given (pre-tax) prices, and the equilibrium response which plays out as prices change. Our main result demonstrates that under weak regularity conditions, regardless of the details ...
In 2023, the global economy grappled with the hurdles on its path to a much-needed recovery, including escalating geopolitical tension, surging natural disasters, and the growing trend of deglobalization and trade protectionism. In its latest economic outlook report, the Organization for Economic Coop...
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We document the cross-sectional patterns of consumption adjustment across the income distribution and find large adjustments for top-income households, who exhibit consumption-income elasticities similar to or larger than the average. We construct a...