New Hampshire Republicans went to the polls Tuesday to vote in thefirst 2024 primary election, choosing between the two remaining major candidates. Ron DeSantisdropped his bidfor the presidency on Sunday and announced his endorsement of Trump, but was still on the ballot. ...
But an analysis by my colleague Geoffrey Skelley in 2019 found that national primary polls in the first half of the year before the election are pretty predictive of who will win the nomination. Historically, from 1972 to 2016, candidates with high name recognition who polled in the 40s and...
DeSantis is still far above any of the other prospective Republican candidates. That could change, but candidates polling around his level in the first half of the year before the primary have historically won a party’s nomination roughly one-third of the time...
The polling shows a striking asymmetry in presidential primary odds. When surprises happen, it's usually when upstart candidates stage comebacks. But clear leaders rarely lose. Every candidate with at least 40 percent in national polls in mid-December has gone on to win their party'...
Both parties dictate how their primary contests are run. On the Republican side, votes are cast at locations determined by district committees. Registered Democrats may cast votes by mail, fax or email. If more than two candidates make the ballot, the primary will be ranked-choice voting -- ...
"We have to face the fact that Trump is the most disliked politician in America," Haley said in a Republican primary debate in August. "We can't win a general election that way." A Politico analysis of four recent 2024 polls found that Haley would draw a large number of indepen...
Looking ahead, big majorities of each candidates' supporters would be dissatisfied if the other became the nominee. About eight in 10 Trump voters would be dissatisfied if Haley wins thenomination, and even more Haley voters would be dissatisfied if Trump becomes the nominee....
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Democratic presidential hopeful US Representative Dean Phillips speaks during a campaign event at Post & Beam Brewing in Peterborough, New Hampshire, on January 17, 2024. Joseph Prezioso | AFP | Getty Images New Hampshire Democratic primary voters will see the names of 21Democratic cand...
That’s because the 2024 Republican primary will not be a two-person race. Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and a host of other candidates are already running. So while it’s interesting that DeSantis does better against Trump in head-to-head polls than multiway ones, those ...