The U.S. has experienced 34 recessions since 1857 according to the NBER, varying in length from two months (February to April 2020) to more than five years (October 1873 to March 1879). The average recession has lasted 17 months, while the six recessions since 1980 have lasted less than...
The purpose of this paper is to examine forecasts of economic recessions that have been made over the last 20 years and evaluate the extent to which forecasters have been successful in their predictions. The approach used was to look closely at published forecasts in major business journals or ...
Last Updated:April 04, 2025 A recession is defined as a contraction in economic growth lasting two quarters or more as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP). Starting with an eight-month slump in 1945, the U.S. economy has weathered 13 different recessions sinceWorld War II. ...
The last two years, supply chains and risk management have been in the same, consistent headlines: supply chains cannot keep up with demand. At first, many of the stock outs, also known as out-of-stock situations, were clearly related to the urgent demand, or exigencies, of pandemic-drive...
I find that the price-dividend ratio falls significantly by 5.6% in the two quarters before recessions start and dividends drop. However, stock prices are commonly measured at the end of a period (e.g., the last trading day of December), while dividends are measured as a trailing 12-month...
Overall 46 years of history that includes the seven last recessions each of which the BCIg, and BCIp, managed to signal. These graphics also include the weeks lead signaled to the then next recession. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge)...
of recession or expansion. To understand the state of the economy at a given time and how this affects the stock market, we need to start with thebusiness cycle. Generally, the business cycle is made up of four different periods of activity, each of which can last for months or years. ...
The old adage “what goes up, must come down” aptly describes a dynamic economy that has historically followed a cycle of growth and decline. The down period in that cycle constitutes a recession, which affects investment returns across various asset cl
Looking at the accounts payable for the last two reporting years Apple shows $12,015.00 for 2010 and $5601.00 for 2009 giving an increase of $6,414.00 in the one year period. 1945 Words 8 Pages Good Essays Read More The Economic Indicators That Affect Apple Inc. This paper introduces six...
6 To measure the financial cycle empirically, the literature has emphasised the role of joint, medium-term fluctuations - typically in the range of 10-20 years – in credit and asset prices as important interactions between credit, asset prices and the real economy play out at these frequencies...