U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2020-2025 + Premium statistics Perceptions of whether countries have fallen into recession worldwide 2024 + Premium statistics View of consumers on the economic outlook in Vietnam 2024 + Premium statistics View of consumers on the economic outlook in ...
May 22, 2023 by David Oakes A recession is coming. Perhaps. It may start this year. Or not. The truth is, we don’t know. In a recent survey, 44% of business economists say that the probability the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months is greater than one-half...
TheNew York Fed just releasedits latest “Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread,” with data through April 2009, and the Fed’s recession probability forecast through April 2010 (see chart above, click to enlarge). The NY Fed’s model uses the spread between 10-year an...
said Thursday. That was more than the 0.7% drop economists had expected, and marked its largest single-month decline since April 2020 at the height of the pandemic’s economic turmoil. The Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been signaling a recession ahead for months, a probability that only ...
Probability of recession priced into asset classes at end of February Source: JPMorgan, prices at 29 February, 2020 The message from government bonds is clear: record low yields already assume weak economies and rate cuts. In fact, if the economic impact is short-lived, then these bonds are...
(July) will choose between 50 BP and 75 BP interest rate hikes.Last week, the US announced that the CPI rose 8.6% year on year in May, hitting a new high in nearly 40 years. All segments, including energy food, are rising. Facing overall US inflation, we think the probability of a...
However, our latest global economic forecasts suggest that, while the probability of such an event has risen, we should steer clear of an outright downturn, even as the pace of growth slows. Resilient economy …but a partial recession may be in store...