前景理论(Prospect Theory),是卡尼曼(Kahneman)和特韦斯基(Tversky)在1979年提出的。所有关于行为经济学的著作,都绕不开这个理论。 曾有一位著名的财经编辑问过卡尼曼,为什么将他们的理论称为“前景理论”,卡尼曼说:“我们只想起一个响亮的名字,让大家记住它。” 也有学者将“前景理论”翻译为“预期理论”或“展望理...
作者: 有一种现象在行为经济学中被称为“损失厌恶”(Loss Aversion),并且是展望理论(Prospect Theory)的一个重要组成部分。 损失厌恶是指人们对损失的厌恶程度大于对同等金额收益的喜好程度。简单来说,如果有人损失了$100,他所感受到的痛苦要大于如果他赢了$100所感受到的快乐。这就是为什么人们在面临损失时愿意冒...
这篇论文主要探讨了一种基于前景理论(Prospect Theory)的模型对齐方法KTO。 首先文章介绍了HALO模型 "Human-Aware Losses"(HALO),这个模型基于前景理论(Prospect Theory)用于解释人们在面对不确定性时如何做出决策。根据前景理论,人们在做出决策时会受到损失厌恶(Loss Aversion)的影响,即他们对损失的敏感度要高于对收益的...
前景理论 Prospect Theory 复旦行为经济学 前景理论ProspectTheory 产生背景 •传统经济学行为选择理论–冯。诺伊曼和摩根斯顿的最大期望效用理论(ExpectedUtilityTheory–VNM)EU=Σpiu(xi)u(xi)为效用函数，pi为事件发生的客观概率RiskAversion(Concave)偏好公理 •占优性:决策者永远都会选择那些具有优势的策略。•...
Loss aversion is one of the reasons we often see phrases like “last chance” or “hurry” in marketing campaigns. Now, there are few ways to use this behavioral theory without being pushy… For example: 1. You could incorporate fear of missing out bycreating urgency and scarcity ...
This study explores the heuristic framework of Prospect Theory in order to understand and appreciate how the cog of social media and the internet have contributed to the great wheel of public emotion, turning just enough in 2016 to elect a brash billionaire President of the American republic. ...
prospect theory 不能解释处置效应(disposition effect),即:交易数据显示,投资者的卖出倾向在零收益率处跳跃,但在较大的亏损范围内大致保持不变,而在较大的收益范围内呈上升或连续性趋势。因此亏损部分不能只是直线,而应该是convex的二次函数。基于此,有
Prospect theory explains the biases that people use when they make such decisions: Certainty Isolation effect Loss aversion We discuss each of these biases in detail below. In This Article: Certainty Isolation Effect Loss Aversion Guard Users Against Negative Experiences ...
Prospect theory assumes that losses and gains are valued differently, and thus individuals make decisions based on perceived gains instead of perceived losses. Also known asloss aversiontheory, the general concept is that if two choices are put before an individual, both equal, with one presented ...