One interesting feature of such forecasts is their calibration, or the match between the predicted probabilities and the actual outcome probabilities. Calibration has been evaluated in the past by grouping probability forecasts into discrete categories. We show here that we can do this without discrete...
Say a test is 100% accurate for positive, but has 10% of negatives that test positive, and say that 5% of all people have the disease, then only ⅓ of people who test positive actually have the disease. Topic: The Economic collapse, negative interest rates and the end of cash Bio: ...
Say a test is 100% accurate for positive, but has 10% of negatives that test positive, and say that 5% of all people have the disease, then only ⅓ of people who test positive actually have the disease. Topic: The Economic collapse, negative interest rates and the end of cash Bio: ...
Russia faced 3 crises during the last 15 years: the Great Recession of 2008, the economic recession of 2014 (Ruble collapsed in July-August 2014, reaching its lowest historical value, and keeping a further downward trend) and the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) world economic crisis. Our ...
Savva (2015) selected an optimal two-regime structure (boom and recession) for the evolution of housing prices in Cyprus. Espinosa and Sanin (2016) found high and low volatility regimes in the Colombian housing market, the former being the least common. Additionally, other studies selected an ...