We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in men...
United States on Its Way to Becoming a 'Contracting State' For the IMO Antifouling Systems Treaty The United States is set to become the next "Contracting State" for the UN International Maritime Organization (IMO) Antifouling Systems Treaty, following President Obama's recent approval of the trea...
Hurricane forecasts have improved greatly over the past few decades, becoming aboutthree times more accurateat predicting landfall locations. But this was a ridiculous, even dangerous tweet: The forecast was nowhere near precise enough to distinguish Tampa from St. Pete. For most of Irma’s existen...
Say a test is 100% accurate for positive, but has 10% of negatives that test positive, and say that 5% of all people have the disease, then only ⅓ of people who test positive actually have the disease. Topic: The Economic collapse, negative interest rates and the end of cash Bio: ...
the President of the United States signed a presidential “Proclamation on Suspension of Entry as Immigrants and Nonimmigrants of Persons who Pose a Risk of Transmitting 2019 Novel Coronavirusexternal icon.”These measures were announced at apress briefing by members of the President’s Coronavirus Tas...
In the first case, one can become certain of the truth-value of the proposition if one has the right data: who is the president of the United States. If one has to choose one's actions based on the truth (or falsity) of this proposition – whether it is appropriate, for example, ...
With today's markets becoming increasingly challenging, John has cut right into the essentials and brought forward the much-needed tools of forex trading. This clear and well-organized publication is a major step forward in helping traders gain an edge. I would highly recommend Forex Conquered as...