We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models ...
Although most students who had a partnership before their univer- sity closed were still with their partners at Wave 2, about 25% of students experienced their partnerships becoming long-distance while another 14.5% reported they and their partners had broken up. The potential changes in proximity...
Say a test is 100% accurate for positive, but has 10% of negatives that test positive, and say that 5% of all people have the disease, then only ⅓ of people who test positive actually have the disease. Topic: The Economic collapse, negative interest rates and the end of cash Bio: ...
Alex Nekritin has been a professional trader for more than 10 years and is the founder and president of TradersChoiceFX.com. TradersChoiceFX is a forex-introducing brokerage firm that is able to enhance its clients' forex trading success by matching them up with the best fit forex ...
Bio: Plastic surgeon, president of a regional society of plastic surgeons. What should we expect for timing and extent of elective surgeries? When/How will we get office based cosmetic treatments? All elective surgeries paused to focus on COVID-19 Loss of $50B/year in the US related to ele...
Clinton’s lead, and perhaps a state or two from the battleground column, would deny Democrats a possible landslide and likely give her a decisive but not overpowering victory, much like the one President Obama earned in 2012. […] You’ll read lots of clips like this during an election ...
In the first case, one can become certain of the truth-value of the proposition if one has the right data: who is the president of the United States. If one has to choose one's actions based on the truth (or falsity) of this proposition – whether it is appropriate, for example, ...
the President of the United States signed a presidential “Proclamation on Suspension of Entry as Immigrants and Nonimmigrants of Persons who Pose a Risk of Transmitting 2019 Novel Coronavirusexternal icon.”These measures were announced at apress briefing by members of the President’s Coronavirus Tas...
Question: Joe flipped a fair coin three times. What is the probability that he obtained no tails? a) 0.5 b) 50% c) 0.125 d) 0.25 The objective of the theory of games: The number of strategies classifies the games and determining rational behav...