The past developments in the predictability of weather and climate are discussed from the point of view of nonlinear dynamical systems. The problems ahead for long‐range predictability extending into the climat
This article summarizes the progress made in predictability studies of weather and climate in recent years in China, with a main focus on advances in methods to study error growth dynamics and reduce uncertainties in the forecasting of weather and climate. Specifically, it covers (a) advances in ...
This limitation on the predictability of the detailed evolution of the atmosphere ("weather") does not preclude the possibility of seasonal and longer-range forecasts of means and other statistical properties ("climate"). However, we are only beginning to learn what aspects of climate may be pred...
This paper provides a summary of the Workshop on Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Predictability of Extreme Weather and Climate, held at Columbia University, December 6–7, 2016. The 2-day workshop was attended by over 100 people and took stock of recent d
As an example, the El Niño forecast depends strongly on the current state of the atmosphere and ocean; it does not depend on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in 6 months. Initial condition uncertainty is a common problem between weather and climate prediction: The climate system is ...
Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly (1999), the predictability studies in China have made further progress during the period of 1999-2002. Firstly, three predictability sub-problems in numerical weather and climate prediction are classified, which are ...
In this study, we examine the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) track density in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) reforecast ensembles of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) using the method of average predictability time (APT). Eleven of the retrieved APT modes...
7prediCtABility oFweAther And ClimAtehoW foreCasts are madeWeather forecasts are all around us, on televi-sion, the radio, and the web. Where do they come from?in today’s world, forecasts are made by solving equa-tions that predict how the weather will change, startingfrom its observed curr...
(2009) Physical essence of the “predictability barrier”. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett. 2: pp. 290-294Li C Y.Physical essence of the"predictability barrier". Abstracts,Predictability of weather and climate:6thAnnual meeting Asia Oceania geosciences society . 2009...
seasonal to climate predictabilityNonlinear Dynamics and ChaosStochastic DynamicsEnsemble ForecastingSeasonal to Climate Predictabilitydoi:10.1002/0471721603.ch7Jeffrey B. WeissJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc.Weiss, J. B., 2003 : Predictability and chaos. In Handbook of weather, Climate, and Water - Dynamics,...