We present a hierarchical Dirichlet regression model with Gaussian process priors that enables accurate and well-calibrated forecasts for U.S. Senate elections at varying time horizons. This Bayesian model provides a balance between predictions based on time-dependent opinion polls and those ma...
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Oklahoma State Senate District 32 Read More Live Results: Houston Mayoral Runoff By 270toWin Staff - December 9, 2023, 4:16 AM ET Houston is the nation's 4th largest city, with a population of approximately 2.3 million. Mayor Sylvester Turner was ineligible to run for a third four-year te...
The emerging likelihood of a Republican Senate and a Joe Biden presidency have left Democrats split on whether to keep fighting for potentially doomed progressive priorities or compromise with the GOP on both personnel and policy. Although votes are still being counted in Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania...
Polling for the two 2020 Georgia Senate runoff elections. Democrats need to win both to gain control of the Senate in 2021.
The latest polls collected by FiveThirtyEight, since the Nov. 3, 2020, election, of the two Georgia Senate runoff elections that will determine which political party controls the Senate.
U.S. Senate, Minnesota, 2024, General election AVG. Oct. 28-30 534LV Chism Strategies Klobuchar 52% 35% WhiteKlobuchar+17 avg. Indicates a polling average for this poll type Candidate is an incumbent Partisan types Democratic-funded
But that assumption was wrong: For 2021-22, polls had a weighted-average bias of just D+0.8.Polling bias is pretty unpredictable from election to election Weighted-average statistical bias of polls in the final 21 days* before presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial general elections since...
Ruben Gallego was testing his form against a boxing dummy for an audience on TikTok. Nearby, aspects of his biography (“El Marine”) and attacks on Kari Lake, his opponent in Arizona’s Senate race (“La Mentirosa” — the liar) were rendered in the form of colorful loteria cards — ...
Donald Surbertakes a look at the upcoming West Virginia Senate battle…and notes that Manchin may end up having trouble against a GOP candidate who was blamed for the deaths of 29 miners. If so, it would indicate the Democrat party is dead in West Virginia. ...