Today, it’s Kamala Harris, mostly because her opponent ceded ground. While the vice president was treading on Trump’s media territory — going onto conservative-friendly Fox News — the former president opened the work week in a snit. He’sposting to Truth Social...
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Using the median poll in the last month for each state, we correctly predicted the results in all states but one (Hawaii). Just as we had originally hoped, the method made it possible to predict successfully the results in the large close states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida) where ...
Yes, changing survey methods deserve close scrutiny and warrant caution, but if the primary election results take us by surprise, I’d wager a major culprit will be our long-held tendency to overlook voter uncertainty and assume too much precision in horse-race polling. Let’s start with...
These results shouldn’t be a surprise. The Biden-Harris administration has failed at every opportunity. Just look at our economy. November’s jobs report was the worst of the year and the lowest number of Biden’s administration. The economy added back just 210,000 jobs – less than half...