In particular — although their methodology is not very transparent — it appears that they use some combination of exit polls and national Rasmussen Reports surveys that track changes in the number of adults belonging to each political party each month. You can probably see the issu...
The third column lists thepollsterthat conducted the poll, along with (in most cases) a letter grade. That letter grade represents itsFiveThirtyEight pollster rating— our assessment of the pollster’s quality based on its historical accuracy and methodology. You can click on the pollster’s name...
She discusses the use of polling methodology and forecasting, including the use and effect of cell-phones. She adds that election results do not necessarily reflect accuracy of the polls.BegleySharonEBSCO_bspNewsweekBegley S. "The Slippery Art of Polling", Newsweek, ...
“IranPoll is the proud winner of Gallup’s 2018 award for Quality. We are truly honored for this remarkable recognition and thank all of our clients for holding us to such a high standard.” —Dr. Amir Farmanesh, CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll), Mar 4, 2019 ““methodology stands ...
The second is a trend through points, calculated using a methodology similar to that of the now-defunct Huffington Post Pollster website and the forecasting methodology used by The Economist. We fit this trend using our custom implementation of a kernel-weighted local polynomial regression, which ...
No single methodology is perfect—the best picture tends to come from multiple sources. Sites which track polling: HuffPost Pollster RealClear Politics FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings PollingReport Many thanks to Chris JacksonatIpsos/Reuters for an engaging talk at the Puget Sound Research Forum. ...
accurate in particular in 1997 and 2001 as well as at several other elections in between. But neither ICM or The Guardian are complacent and recognise that past success is no guarantee of future accuracy. However before switching to a new polling methodology both organisations are ...
Even though the correlation filter-based trackers accomplished the competitive outcomes in terms of accuracy and robustness, there is a need to improve tracking performance. In this paper, the vote mapping of patched confidence methodology is used to enhance a tracking system's performance by ...
Nate – I admire your methodology for figuring out who might win Senate contests, but I don’t always buy the results. For example, your forecast shows that there is a 92 percent chance that Sestak loses to Toomey. I grant that Toomey should be rated the favorite, but I don...
As described earlier, we’re now classifying methodology based on the individual poll rather than on the pollster. In some cases, for polls we entered in our database long ago and didn’t record the methodology, we had to go back and impute it based on the methodology that the pollster ...