While the polar vortex in the mid-stratosphere tends to recover quickly after these disturbances, any effects on the tropospheric jet stream and its weather patterns couldpotentially stick around for up to 6 weeksafter the vortex is disrupted.This “loads the dice” for potential arctic outbreaksov...
Forecasters believe a disruption to the current flow will happen in the new year, but early indications are that the air mass won’t send the country into tundra territory. A stable Arctic Polar Vortex. (FOX Weather) "There isn’t a one-to-one correlation between what’s happening with t...
Stratospheric polar vortexsudden stratospheric warmingmedium-range forecastSL-AV global atmosphere modelThe quality of Arctic winter stratospheric dynamics forecast using the SL-AV atmospheric global circulation model is studied. The series of numerical experiments show that forecasts with the lead time up ...
With a piece of the Polar Vortex camped out in the North Central U.S.(near historic cold for this time of year), storm systems have been like a parade traversing the periphery of the vortex. This has brought heavy snow and ice to the Deep South, with major disruptions to travel and ...
NOAA Forecast: No Polar Vortex This YearWASHINGTON - If you thought last winter was a horror show, withcold blasts from the polar vortex...Borenstein, Seth
A Cold September? Forecast Sees Early Polar VortexUsalis, John E
Yoshimura (2016), Predictability of the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown: An ensemble reforecast experiment for the splitting event in January 2009, J. Geophys. Res., 121(7), 3388-3404, doi:10.1002/2015JD024581.Noguchi, S., H. Mukougawa, Y. Kuroda, R. Mizuta, S. Yabu, and H. ...
For two of the polar vortex displacement events, the CFSv2 predictions of the start, largest, and end times of the polar vortex displacement are accurate at forecast lead times of 0 and 5 days, and the prediction results for the westerly winds and temperature gradients are also excellent. ...
Anomalously weak polar vortex events can be induced by enhanced vertically propagating Rossby waves from the troposphere, driven by blocking and wave breaking. Here, we analyse a tropospheric pattern the Scandinavia〨reenland (S〨) pattern associated with both processes. The S〨 pattern is defined ...
This study explores seasonal forecast skill and signal‐to‐noise (SN) ratio for stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) variations during Northern winter using hindcast (HC) data of six systems initialized around early November in the Copernicus Climate Change Service database. Results show ...