The Pacific's El Niño, a polar vortex and lack of snowfall are all complicating the potential accuracy of January's temperature and precipitation outlook.
evolution of the vortex event is captured remarkably well. This highlights an influence from this region previously unrecognised by the seasonal forecast community. We suggest that better representation of the flow in this region is likely to improve predictability of extreme polar vortex events and ...
With a piece of the Polar Vortex camped out in the North Central U.S.(near historic cold for this time of year), storm systems have been like a parade traversing the periphery of the vortex. This has brought heavy snow and ice to the Deep South, with major disruptions to travel and ...
Stratospheric polar vortexsudden stratospheric warmingmedium-range forecastSL-AV global atmosphere modelThe quality of Arctic winter stratospheric dynamics forecast using the SL-AV atmospheric global circulation model is studied. The series of numerical experiments show that forecasts with the lead time up ...
and successful mitigation of the impacts of severe CAOs. This novel approach of Granger-causality analysis can be directly applied to operational subseasonal and seasonal forecast models to assess and improve their ability to exploit the predictive skill related to the stratospheric polar vortex. ...
For as long as we have had weather records (extending back into the 1800s), lobes of cold air rotating generally from west to east around the polar vortex sometimes extend down into the U.S. causing wild winter weather and general unpleasantness. ...
Finally, the predictability of the polar stratosphere and its influence on the troposphere is assessed in a stratosphere-resolving seasonal forecast system. Little skill is found in the prediction of the strength of the Northern Hemisphere vortex at lead times beyond one month. However, much greater...
For the mitigation and prediction of the GNSS signal corruption due to scintilla- tions, the analysis is focused mainly on the diffractive (stochastic) effects, which are hard to forecast and mitigate. In turn, the advancement of knowledge about the irreg- ularities causing scintillations boosts ...
and the Research Council of Norway Grants 223252 and 230996. The computations were performed by Numerical Forecast Modeling Research & Development and Virtual Reality System of State Key Laboratory of Space Weather. We acknowledge NASA Contract NAS5-02099 and V. Angelopoulos for the use of data fr...
NOAA Forecast: No Polar Vortex This YearWASHINGTON - If you thought last winter was a horror show, withcold blasts from the polar vortex...Borenstein, Seth