The example Alex uses is people misunderstanding the wild swings in Nate Silver’s US election predictions. These don’t mean Silver’s model is horribly wrong. They’re happening because small shifts in the probability distribution can have a large effect on the expected outcome. ...
Back in 1964, John Bell proved a theorem (Bell’s Theorem) that shows that if the predictions of quantum mechanics are correct, then it’s impossible for any local properties to produce the outcomes of some experiments. Shortly after I was born, my intellectual grandfather (that is, the ...
Despite advanced predictions that 2007 would be the warmest year on record, made by such UN associates as Britain’s Hadley Centre, a government climate research agency, 2007 was the coolest year since at least 1993. According to the U. S. National Climatic Data Centre, the average ...